关键词: 年龄-龄期两性生命表, 种群预测, 种群动态, 变异性, 害虫防治

Abstract: Computer simulation of the dynamics of insect populations is very important for the prediction of population growth and pest management. In this article, we introduced the use of computer simulations to predict the population dynamics, fluctuation of predation, parasitism and feeding, timing of pest control, and variability of simulation based on the age-stage, two-sex life table. Using the life table program TWOSEX-MSChart and predation rate program CONSUME-MSChart to analyze the life table data and predation data, the results can then be used in the simulation program TIMING-MSChart to project the stage structure of the population dynamics, and the changes in the predation, parasitism and consumption capacities of population. Based on the population dynamics, computer simulation can be used to predict the damage caused by the pest population, predation capacity of predator and parasitism capacity of parasitoid. These data can then be used to plan the timing and frequencies of pesticide application in chemical control, and to predict the timing and number of natural enemies to be released in biological control. Furthermore, the uncertainty of population growth can be predicted by using the life table constructed based on 2.5, 97.5 and other percentiles generated through bootstrap technology. Computer simulations based on the age-stage, two-sex life table can predict the growth of pest populations and the optimal timing for chemical and biological control to achieve an economical and efficient integrated pest management, thus providing theoretical and technical support for sustainable agriculture.

Key words: Age-stage, two-sex life table, population projection, population dynamics, uncertainty, pest management