关键词: 棉铃虫, 生命表, 模拟, 蒙特卡罗方法

Abstract:

Based on the demographic parameters of life table of the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), its population dynamics was simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The simulation results showed that cotton bollworm population dynamics was very complicated. Although original survived larvae were same, after several generations or life history stages, the population density of cotton bollworm varied enormously, ranging from slight occurrence to outbreak. Only if the environment was very favorable for cotton bollworm, did the inputted parameter, the survived larvae of first generation, affect the pest's probable maximum occurrence degree. When the occurrence degree was slight or moderate, the original survived larvae and the final population density of cotton bollworm had no significant relationship. However, if environmental conditions were favorable to the bollworm for one generation or even a life history stage, cotton bollworm would break out. The simulated results suggest that uncertainty exists in some extent to make long term forecast of the bollworm dynamics.

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Key words: Helicoverpa armigera, life table, simulation, Monte Carlo method