关键词: 椰心叶甲, 时空发生格局, 随机森林模型, 气候变量, 海南岛

Abstract:  【Aim】 This study aims to reveal the impact of the climatic features of Hainan Island, South China on the occurrence patterns of the invasive pest Brontispa longissima, so as to provide a scientific basis for developing effective control strategies. 【Methods】From 2021 to 2023, a monthly survey was conducted on Palmae plants within a 500-m range of expressways and national highways on Hainan Island. The information such as the latitude and longitude of the area of B. longissima infestations, host species, and the number of damaged plants was recorded. The spatio-temporal occurrence patterns of the occurrence area of B. longissima were analyzed by statistical methods, while the influences of ten climatic factors on the occurrence area of B. longissima were explored using the random forest model. 【Results】 The occurrence area of B. longissima had been increasing annually, showing a unimodal pattern within the annual cycle, with the peak occurring in May or June. The damage of B. longissima during the wet season (May to October) was more severe than that during the dry season (November to April of the next year). The damage caused by B. longissima was mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Hainan Island, with the eastern coastal regions being the most severely affected. According to the climate zone division, the southeastern region had the largest occurrence area of B. longissima. The occurrence area in the northeastern region was larger than that in the southwestern region from March to August, but from September to February of the next year, the occurrence area in the southwestern region exceeded that in the northeastern region. According to the random forest feature importance ranking for the occurrence area of B. longissima and climatic factors, precipitation and relative humidity were the main climatic factors affecting the occurrence area of B. longissima, with the percentages of increase of mean square error (IncMSE%) of 28.14% and 27.39%, respectively.【Conclusion】 The occurrence area of B. longissima on Hainan Island is closely related to climatic conditions, displaying distinct spatio-temporal occurrence patterns. The wet season (May to October) is a critical period for control efforts, with damage reaching its annual peak particularly in May and June. Coastal areas of Hainan Island, especially in the eastern and southeastern climate zones, are the key regions for focus, requiring enhanced monitoring and management. In the northeastern climate zones, emphasis should be paid on the control in spring and summer (March to August), while in the southwestern region efforts should be strengthened during the autumn and winter months (September to February of the next year). This study provides a reference for scientifically formulating regional and seasonal control strategies for B. longissima.

Key words: Brontispa longissima, spatio-temporal occurrence patterns, random forest model, climatic variables, Hainan Island