关键词: 二化螟, 越冬代, 发育速率, 羽化动态, 预测模型

Abstract: 【Aim】Prediction of the adult emergence dynamics of the overwintering generation of Chilo suppressalis is crucial for the accurate prediction and control of its offspring generations. This study aims to develop a model simulation for predicting the adult emergence dynamics of the overwintering generation of C. suppressalis.【Methods】To obtain model parameters, the overwintering larval populations of C. suppressalis were collected from the paddy fields in Xing′an, Guangxi, South China in February, March and April 2021 and the developmental duration of immature stages and adult emergence rate were determined at four temperatures (14, 18, 22 and 26 ℃). The developmental rates of immature stages (the reciprocal of developmental duration) were fitted with linear and nonlinear models, and the adult emergence rate was fitted using a three-parameter Weibull equation. Model parameters were calculated using Origin 2022.【Results】From the perspective of model fitting, the model established based on the developmental duration of immature stages and adult emergence rate data of the overwintering larval population of C. suppressalis collected in March performed better (R_adj²_March=0.9445, R_adj²_February=0.9083, R_adj²_April=0.8380). However, the field observation data showed that the nonlinear larval development Schoolfield model {V(T)=0.64×T/298.15×exp［47.11/1.99×(1/298.15-1/T)］} and the adult emergence Weibull equation {F∑(V(T))=1-exp［-(∑V(T)+0.04)/1.05)×5.95］} based on the overwintering larval population collected in February gave the least deviation of adult emergence dynamics between the predicted value and the field-observed value, which was 1.0-5.3 d. 【Conclusion】In practical application, local air temperature data are input into the above models to obtain the predicted adult emergence dynamic values of the overwintering generation of C. suppressalis, which, when corrected by the deviation values obtained in this study, will provide accurate prediction of adult emergence dynamics and aid in the decision-making for the accurate control of C. suppressalis.

Key words:  Chilo suppressalis, overwintering generation, developmental rate, emergence dynamics, prediction model