关键词: 枯蝉, 气候变化, 昆虫保护, 生态学, 物种分布模型, 黄土高原

Abstract: 【Aim】 Climate change is expected to continue to play a dominate role in causing habitat loss for many organisms over the next decades. Due to the vulnerability of endemic species, it is essential to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of species with a high degree of endemism in order to conserve biodiversity. 【Methods】 The current and future habitat suitability of the endemic cicada Subpsaltria yangi in China, an evolutionarily and ecologically significant species of conservation concern in the Cicadoidea, was assessed using the Maxent model based on the current known distribution records of this species combined with the bioclimatic and topographic data of related areas. 【Results】 Our results showed that this rare species is strictly confined to the Loess Plateau and adjacent areas. Future predictions to the year 2050 showed a clear decrease in suitable area for S. yangi, even under a moderate climate change scenario. Annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month are all critical factors associated with the habitat distribution of this species. Existing areas should be protected from encroachment, and some areas such as Tianshui in Gansu Province and Yan′an in Shaanxi Province should be treated as the key protected areas for S. yangi in response to pending climate change. 【Conclusion】 The habitat suitability maps for S. yangi obtained in this study will provide useful information for discovering new populations, identifying toppriority survey sites, planning land management around existing populations and setting priorities to restore natural habitat for more effective conservation of this rare species.

Key words: Subpsaltria yangi, climate change, insect conservation, ecology, species distribution model, Loess Plateau