• 研究论文 •

### 气候变化对黄土高原及邻近地区稀有种枯蝉分布的潜在影响(英文)

1.  (1. 西北农林科技大学植物保护学院, 陕 西杨凌 712100; 2. 西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌 712100; 3. 塔里木大学植物科学学院, 新疆阿拉尔 843300)
• 出版日期:2019-01-20 发布日期:2019-01-24

### Potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of Subpsaltria yangi (Hemiptera: Cicadidae), a rare cicada species in the Loess Plateau and adjacent areas in China (In English)

WANG Zhen-Peng1, PENG Shou-Zhang2, HE Zhi-Qiang3, WEI Cong1,*

1. (1. College of Plant Protection, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 2. Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; 3. College of Plant Science, Tarim University, Alar, Xinjiang 843300, China)
• Online:2019-01-20 Published:2019-01-24

【目的】未来数十年的气候变化预计会是造成很多物种生境丧失的一个重要因素。对适应能力相对脆弱的地方性物种，预测气候变化对其生境的影响将对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于最大熵模型，对珍稀蝉科中国特有种枯蝉Subpsaltria yangi在当前和未来气候条件下的生境适宜度进行了评估。【结果】结果表明，枯蝉主要局限分布于黄土高原及邻近地区。预计至2050年，即使在温和的气候变化情景下，枯蝉的生境面积也会明显减少。影响枯蝉栖息地分布的关键因素为年平均气温、最冷月的最低气温、最冷季的平均气温和最潮湿月份的降水量。枯蝉现存种群栖息地应当受到保护，甘肃天水和陕西延安地区应作为枯蝉分布的核心区予以保护，以应对气候变化对其生境带来的影响。【结论】本研究获得的枯蝉适宜生境分布图可以为该稀有物种的新种群发现、现生种群分布地土地规划管理以及有效的自然保护区设立提供重要信息。

Abstract: 【Aim】 Climate change is expected to continue to play a dominate role in causing habitat loss for many organisms over the next decades. Due to the vulnerability of endemic species, it is essential to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of species with a high degree of endemism in order to conserve biodiversity. 【Methods】 The current and future habitat suitability of the endemic cicada Subpsaltria yangi in China, an evolutionarily and ecologically significant species of conservation concern in the Cicadoidea, was assessed using the Maxent model based on the current known distribution records of this species combined with the bioclimatic and topographic data of related areas. 【Results】 Our results showed that this rare species is strictly confined to the Loess Plateau and adjacent areas. Future predictions to the year 2050 showed a clear decrease in suitable area for S. yangi, even under a moderate climate change scenario. Annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month are all critical factors associated with the habitat distribution of this species. Existing areas should be protected from encroachment, and some areas such as Tianshui in Gansu Province and Yan′an in Shaanxi Province should be treated as the key protected areas for S. yangi in response to pending climate change. 【Conclusion】 The habitat suitability maps for S. yangi obtained in this study will provide useful information for discovering new populations, identifying toppriority survey sites, planning land management around existing populations and setting priorities to restore natural habitat for more effective conservation of this rare species.