关键词:  考氏白盾蚧, 生态位模型, 全球气候变化, 潜在分布格局, 环境变量

Abstract: 【Aim】 This study aims to analyze the potential distribution areas of landscape plant pest Pseudaulacaspis cockerelli in the world today and in the future, reveal the distribution dynamics of P. cockerelli under future climate change, and clarify the effects of climate and environmental factors on its potential distribution. 【Methods】 Taking P. cockerelli as the research target, based on 118 effective geographical distribution records and 19 environmental variables of P. cockerelli in the world, and using the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, we speculated the potential distribution pattern of P. cockerelli in the current, 2050 and 2070, determined the suitable intervals of environmental variables with the response curves and quantified the potential geographic distribution dynamics of P. cockerelli under future climatic conditions. 【Results】 The average value of area under the curve (AUC) of MaxEnt model operation was 0.7182, indicating that the prediction accuracy of this prediction model was relatively high. The total area of potential geographic distribution of P. cockerelli in the current is about 2.73×10⁷ km², of which the area of highly suitable habitat is about 4.37×10⁶ km², accounting for 16% of the total area of potential invasion, being mainly located in the southwest coastal region of the United States and Brazil, the western region and western coastal region of India, Bangladesh, most of northern Vietnam, most of southwest, east and central China, and southern regions of Japan. Under future climatic conditions, the predicted highly suitable area for P. cockerelli will increase significantly along with the increase of CO2 concentration. The main environmental variables affecting the potential geographic distribution of P. cockerelli are the mean diurnal range, the diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference ratio, the mean temperature of the wettest season and the precipitation seasonality, with the contribution of the diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference ratio the highest, reaching 38.8%. 【Conclusion】 The results of this study suggest that the suitable habitat for P. cockerelli is mainly influenced by the mean diurnal range and the diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference ratio. This study provides an important basis and data support for the integrated control of P. cockerelli.

Key words: Pseudaulacaspis cockerelli, ecological niche model, world climate change, potential distribution pattern, environmental variables