关键词: 黑色枝小蠹, MaxEnt, 入侵种群, 监测预警, 分级应对

Abstract: 【Aim】The black twig borer, Xylosandrus compactus, is an important wood-boring insect pest native to Southeast Asia. It causes serious damage to multiple host plants, leading to substantial economic and ecological losses worldwide. This study aims to clarify the distribution and changes of global potential suitable areas of this pest, so as to provide a basis for its monitoring and early warning, and development of its control measures. 【Methods】The distribution sites of X. compactus were screened by using ArcGIS to set up the buffer. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) parameters were reset by regularization multiplier and feature combinations calculated by R. Various environmental variables were screened through the jackknife test and variable correlation analysis. The distribution of the potential global suitable areas for X. compactus was predicted based on the MaxEnt model reconstructed by key environmental variables, combined with the current climate data and four forcing scenarios in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). 【Results】 After screening, the data from 170 distribution sites of X. compactus were used to construct the MaxEnt model. The seven dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of X. compactus included monthly mean temperature difference, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), and precipitation of the wettest quarter and precipitation of the driest quarter. The model prediction showed that under the current climate conditions, X. compactus can be distributed between 60°N and 45°S, and the lowly, moderately and highly suitable habitats of the global land area account for 8.70%, 6.32% and 2.79%, respectively. Under future climate conditions, the distribution area of the lowly, moderately and highly suitable habitats of X. compactus will increase to varying degrees, and the increase of the three kinds of suitable areas (lowly, moderately and highly suitable areas)was the largest under the moderately to highly complusive scenario (SSP370). The distribution of suitable areas of X. compactus shifted northwardly. The coastal regions on all continents except for Antarctica were highly suitable for the distribution of X. compactus, and the highly suitable habitat eventually expanded to inland.【Conclusion】 Climate change and human activity provide favorable conditions for the survival, growth, and development of X. compactus, as well as its generational shifts and population growth. Therefore, the preventive and control model of “graded response” is recommended to be developed in accordance with the possible suitable area level of X. compactus.

Key words: Xylosandrus compactus; MaxEnt, invasive populations, monitoring and early warning, graded response