秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠密度的状态空间模型

›› 2002, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (2): 132-133.

秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠密度的状态空间模型

李仲来¹，余根坚²，陈德³

出版日期:2006-06-09 发布日期:2006-06-09

Statespace model between Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and population of Meriones unguiculatus

LI Zhong-Lai¹，YU Gen-Jian²，CHEN-De³

Online:2006-06-09 Published:2006-06-09

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 给出了一个描述秃病蚤蒙冀亚种Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi与长爪沙鼠M eriones unguiculatus密度的状态空间模型，模型为x_t+1=-0.336x_t+0.057y_t+0.107z_t, _t+1=0.586x_t-0.369y_t-0.274z_t, z_t+1=0.189x_t-0.247y_t-0.309z_t, 其中x_t，y_t和z_t分别为t月份的沙鼠密度, 巢秃病蚤和体秃病蚤指数。结果表明，模型能够较好地描述野外秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠间的关系，并发现沙鼠密度显著地影响巢秃病蚤指数。

关键词: 秃病蚤蒙冀亚种, 长爪沙鼠, 巢蚤指数, 体蚤指数, 种群密度, 状态空间模型, 秃病蚤蒙冀亚种, 长爪沙鼠, 巢蚤指数, 体蚤指数, 种群密度, 状态空间模型

Abstract: This paper established a statespace simulation model of the monthly fluctuation patterns between the Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and Meriones unguiculatus. It consisted of the following formulas: x_t+1=-0.336x_t+0.057y_t+0.107z_t, y_t+1=0.586x_t-0.369y_t-0.274z_t, z=0.189x_t+0.247y_t-0.309z_t_, where x_t is the population density of M. unguiculatus, y_t and z_t are respectively related to the burrow nest and the body flea index of N. l. kuzenkovi at t month. The simulation results exhibited satisfactory agreement with field data. The population density of M. unguiculatus was the main factor affecting the burrow nest flea index of N. l. kuzenkovi.

Key words: Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi, Meriones unguiculatus, rat burrow nest flea index, rat body flea index, population density, statespace model, Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi, Meriones unguiculatus;rat burrow nest flea index, rat body flea index, population density, statespace model

李仲来¹，余根坚²，陈德³. 秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠密度的状态空间模型[J]. , 2002, 45(2): 132-133.

LI Zhong-Lai¹，YU Gen-Jian²，CHEN-De³. Statespace model between Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and population of Meriones unguiculatus[J]. , 2002, 45(2): 132-133.

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