关键词: 棉铃虫, 第5代, 种群动态, 模拟, 预测

Abstract: A dynamical model based on a population life table for Helicoverpa armigera was built up using the software Dymex developed by Cooperative Research Center For Tropical Pest Management（CRCFTPM）of Australia. Using daily historic data as the driving variable, simulations ranged from the 4th to the 5th generation of two districts Tongzhou and Siyang were run on respectively. The results indicated that, except for years with the highest temperatures and earliest emergence of this generation, the fifth generation would usually not complete larval development and hibernate successfully, and therefore would not become an effective population source for the following year. Based on the simulations, a predictive table for size of the fourth generation at hibernation and the number and period of 16% of the fifth generation accumulated eggs were presented.

Key words: Helicoverpa armigera, the fifth generation, population dynamics, simulation, forecasting