›› 2002, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (4): 465-470.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇


苏战平, 张孝羲, 翟保平   

  • 出版日期:2002-08-20 发布日期:2002-08-20

Simulation and prediction of population dynamics of the fifth generation ofHelicoverpa armigera (Hübner) in Jiangsu Province

SU Zhan-Ping, ZHANG Xiao-Xi, ZHAI Bao-Ping   

  • Online:2002-08-20 Published:2002-08-20

摘要: 用澳大利亚热带害虫研究中心开发的通用制模软件Dymex为外壳,以棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera种群生命表为基础,构建了棉铃虫种群动态模型,以逐日历史气温统计值为驱动变量进行了第4、5代棉铃虫种群动态的模拟。结果表明,除早发高温的年份外,其它年份的绝大多数第5代棉铃虫在江苏棉区11月底前不能发育至蛹而无法安全越冬,故不能成为翌年第1代的有效虫源。根据模拟结果可预测第4代越冬蛹量及第5代卵的发生期、发生量及其越冬蛹数量并制成了简便易用的预测检索表。

关键词: 棉铃虫, 第5代, 种群动态, 模拟, 预测

Abstract: A dynamical model based on a population life table for Helicoverpa armigera was built up using the software Dymex developed by Cooperative Research Center For Tropical Pest Management(CRCFTPM)of Australia. Using daily historic data as the driving variable, simulations ranged from the 4th to the 5th generation of two districts Tongzhou and Siyang were run on respectively. The results indicated that, except for years with the highest temperatures and earliest emergence of this generation, the fifth generation would usually not complete larval development and hibernate successfully, and therefore would not become an effective population source for the following year. Based on the simulations, a predictive table for size of the fourth generation at hibernation and the number and period of 16% of the fifth generation accumulated eggs were presented.

Key words: Helicoverpa armigera, the fifth generation, population dynamics, simulation, forecasting