关键词: 褐飞虱, 前期迁入, 海温, 遥相关, 机制

Abstract: To select effective long-term forecasting factors, teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (BPH) in Tongzhou and Huai'an, Jiangsu and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from January 2 years ago to the current June was analyzed, and their correlation stabilities were tested. The results indicated that there were different spatio-temporal distributions of significant correlative SST regions in the two stations. These SST regions were mainly distributed in the Central and South Pacific (72.4%) and in one and two years earlier (82.7%). The relationship between every two of the following three factors was investigated: the early immigration of BPH, the average temperature or precipitation of every ten days from April to August and the monthly mean indices of 500 hPa Western Pacific Subtropical High. Then, teleconnection between Pacific SST anomalies and each of the above three factors, which were significantly correlated with each other, were compared. The case analysis indicated that SST over the mid-Eastern Equatorial Pacific of the previous winter and spring affected the area index of Western Pacific Subtropical High in this June, which influenced the precipitation of the last ten days of June in Tongzhou, accordingly influencing the early immigration of BPH in Tongzhou; while the SST over the mid-Eastern Equatorial Pacific of spring and summer two years ago affected the North boundary of Western Pacific Subtropical High in the current May, which influenced the precipitation of the first ten days of July in Huai'an, accordingly influencing the early immigration of BPH in Huai'an. Finally, the possible mechanism of the teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper and Pacific sea surface tem   perature was proposed as “sea surface temperature → atmospheric circulation → climate → the early immigration of brown planthopper”.  

Key words: Brown planthopper, early immigration, sea surface temperature, teleconnection, mechanism