关键词: 入侵害虫, 风险评估, 最大虫口限量, 计算机平台

Abstract: A quantitative risk assessment is needed for each quarantine insect pest to ensure quarantine security without sacrificing the transparency of international trade. In this paper, a quantitative risk analysis system based on the maximum pest limit concept (MPL) was designed to determine the risk probability of alien insect pests introduced into China. The equations of MPL were constructed to determine the probability of a single pair of bisexual insects surviving in a shipment of commodity which were to be introduced into China. A computer system integrating with SAS V9.0 was developed by PHP program language and MySQL database to assess the risk and released on web through Apache server. The clients just have to submit the form lists including required data after logging into the system, and the computer system will activate the analysis process automatically and show the precise outcome on web. This research is a new attempt in the quantitative risk analysis of alien insect pests, and provides a new analysis tool for the quarantine sector of the government.

Key words: Invasive pests, risk assessment, maximum pest limit, computer system