›› 2009, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (6): 640-650.

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇



  • 出版日期:2009-06-20 发布日期:2009-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 吴坤君

Estimating developmental rates of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) pupae at constant and alternating temperatures by nonlinear models

  • Online:2009-06-20 Published:2009-06-20

摘要: 为了深入分析和探讨昆虫发育与环境温度的关系, 在恒温(15~37℃)和交替变温(12/18~34/40℃)下测定了棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹的发育历期(d),分别用线性模型和非线性模型(Logan模型﹑Lactin模型和王氏模型)拟合其发育率(1/d)数据。结果表明,这3个非线性模型能更准确地描述发育率与温度之间的曲线关系,判定系数(R2)在0.9878~0.9991之间。对全部观测数据的进一步研究表明,只要有6个分布合适的观测数据,就可以用这些非线性模型获得相当满意的估测效果。如果缺乏高温下的测定数据,用非线性模型预测的昆虫发育率可能失真。分析了蛹在恒温和变温下发育率差异的可能原因,讨论了应用这3个非线性模型预测蛹期发育的优点和缺点,指出用非线性模型取代线性日·度模型进行害虫发生预测和益虫饲养管理的合理性和必要性。

关键词: 棉铃虫, 蛹, 恒温, 变温, 线性模型, 非线性模型, 发育率, 估测

Abstract: Developmental durations (d) of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) pupae were determined at constant temperatures from 15 to 37℃ and alternating temperatures from 12/18 to 34/40℃ for comprehensive analyses on insect development in relation to temperature. Both linear model and nonlinear models (Logan model, Lactin model and Wang model) were used to fit the observed data, and these nonlinear models gave a more accurate description of temperature-dependent developmental rates with the coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 0.9878 to 0.9991. Further fitting various numbers of the observed data showed that so long as six cases of them distributed in the proper way, these nonlinear models could estimate pupal developmental rate with high satisfaction. On the other hand, lack of the data at high temperature would give a false prediction. A possible cause for difference between developmental rates of the pupae at constant and alternating temperatures is illustrated. The strong and weak points of the three nonlinear models when applied to estimate the pupal developmental rate are commented. The results suggest that the nonlinear models may be of significant value in improving prediction of insect pest occurrence as well as rearing and management of beneficial insects as alternative to linear degree-day model.

Key words: Helicoverpa armigera, pupae, constant temperature, alternating temperature, linear models, nonlinear models, developmental rate, estimation