Abstract: A regression model of phase space for predicting brown planthopper (BPH) occurrence in the rice growing area of Taihu District, Jiangsu Province, was established on the basis of chaos theory. Its accuracy was very high with a relative error of only 22.91%. Therefore, the model provides a new and more efficient method for the prediction of the long-term occurrence of this Insect pest.

Key words: brown planthopper (BPH), chaos, phase space, regression prediction model