关键词: 黑头叉胸花蝽, MaxEnt, 全球气候变化, 环境变量, 潜在地理分布

Abstract: 【Aim】This study aims to predict and analyze the potential geographical distribution of Amphiareus obscuriceps in the world, reveal its distribution dynamics under current and future climate change, and clarify the impact of climate and environmental factors on its potential distribution.【Methods】Based on 165 valid geographical distribution records and 19 environmental variables, the MaxEnt model of parameter optimization was used to predict the potential distribution pattern of A. obscuriceps in 2050 and 2090 under current and future climate change conditions, and to find out the environmental variables affecting the distribution of A. obscuriceps.【Results】Global potential habitat simulations showed that in addition to the native eastern Asia, potential suitable habitats of A. obscuriceps exist in southeastern Oceania, western and southern Europe, southeastern North America, and southeastern South America. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) were important environmental variables affecting the distribution of A. obscuriceps, contributing 32.4%, 10.5%, 12.6% and 33.3% to the model, respectively. The potential distribution of A. obscuriceps in 2050 and 2090 under the climate scenarios of different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) showed that the area of the total suitable habitats of A. obscuriceps will change little, and only increase 0.84% under the 2050 SSP585 climate scenario, and under other climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats will decrease by 1.00%-8.45%. However, although the area of the suitable habitats will change little, the location of the suitable habitats will change greatly, and the suitable habitats will shift to the high latitude, the area of the low latitude habitat will decrease by 18.66%-47.94%, and the area of the high latitude habitat will increase by 11.19%-46.93%.【Conclusion】Under the condition of climate change, A. obscuriceps will move to high latitudes, but due to the influence of non-climatic factors (biological factors, geographical barriers, etc.), climate change may have a greater impact on the distribution area and range of the species. In addition, the environmental variables affecting the distribution of A. obscuriceps mainly include the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the precipitation of the warmest quarter. This study provides important references and data support for the potential distribution, field release and biological control of related pests.

Key words: Amphiareus obscuriceps, MaxEnt, global climate change, environment variables, potential geographical distribution