Abstract: The pine bark scale,Matsucoccus matsumurae(Kuwana), is a major invasive pest of Pinus trees. Based on the genetic algorithm for ruleset prediction modeling system (GMS), the potential geographic distribution of the scale in China were analyzed. The results indicated that the spreading of the scale in China underwent three main phases, I.e., sporadic distribution phase, gradually spreading phase and rapidly spreading phase. It was predicated that the population of the pine bark scale could be established in 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, especially in the northeast and the eastern coastal areas, and the expanding direction is upcountry in China. Further predictive analysis with Liaoning and Jilin provinces confirmed the precision of the method, and showed that the expanding direction was consistent with that of the countrywide, and 6 grand risk areas and 13 key areas for subsequent dispersion were further defined for the region.

Key words: Matsucoccus matsumurae, invasive species, pine, GMS, predicted distribution