Abstract:

 The introduction risk of Bactrocera dorsalis（Hendel）through imported fruits was assessed using fuzzy mathematics. An assessing parameter set was established, which included 5 primary parameters (species of imported fruits, volume of imported fruits, injury rate of imported fruits, survival of B. dorsalis during the shipping, and efficacy of quarantine) and 9 secondary parameters (occurrence degree in the production area, control efficacy in production area, disinfestations before shipping, shipping period, condition of shipping, limiting factor occurrence during shipping, percentage of sampling, injury rate of checked samples, and effects of quarantine treatment). The weight for each parameter was calculated through weight-analyzing method, and a fuzzy decision model was developed to determine the introduction risk of B. dorsalis. Simulation results show that disinfestation treatment before export and quarantine inspection to imported fruits arrived at port are very important to reduce risk. The volume of imported fruits and the limiting factor occurrence during shipping also contribute significantly to the value of introduction risk.

Key words: Bactrocera dorsalis, biological invasion, introduction risk, fuzzy decision, assessment