Abstract: 【Aim】 The grassland caterpillar, Gynaephora menyuanensis is an important pest to alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and seriously impedes the development of grassland ecology and animal husbandry. Understanding the actual distribution area and potential habitats of G. menyuanensis in the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains is important for its monitoring and control as well as the protection of grassland ecology there. 【Methods】Based on a large number of field surveys (147 sites), the statistical analysis software IBM SPSS 22.0 was used to screen the environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. menyuanensis, and the ecological niche model MaxEnt 3.4.4 and the geographic information system software ArcGIS 10.8 were applied to predict the range of suitable habitats of G. menyuanensis from 2021 to 2040. 【Results】The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of G. menyuanensis were mean precipitation in September, mean solar radiation in September, and so on. The change trend of suitable habitats of G. menyuanensis in the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains from 2021 to 2040 indicated a decreasing trend in the area of the highly suitable habitats and unsuitable habitats, and an increasing trend in the moderately suitable habitats and lowly suitable habitats. The AUC ［area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve］ value of the detection model was 0.924, and the simulation results behaved good accuracy. 【Conclusion】The results of this study provide a theoretical reference for clarifying the rules of the geographical distribution of G. menyuanensis and the monitoring and control of this insect. Global climate change provides suitable conditions for the expansion of the habitats of G. menyuanensis, and it is recommended that a “graded response” monitoring and early warning system and a prevention and control model should be constructed according to the potential suitability level of G. menyuanensis to cope with pest infestation.

Key words: Gynaephora menyuanensis, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, grassland conservation, grassland insects, potential distribution area, distribution rules