Abstract: 【Aim】 The plant quarantine pest in China, Naupactus leucoloma, makes serious potential damage to crops and cultivated plants. Since it was first discovered in the United States in the 20th century, it has spread in many countries around the world, causing serious economic losses. This study aims to model the potential geographical distribution of N. leucoloma and further analyze its colonization and proliferation risk. 【Methods】 Based on 752 effective distribution records of N. leucoloma and 10 environmental variables, the potential geographical distribution of N. leucoloma was simulated by the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS. The important environmental variables governing its potential geographical distribution were also evaluated by the environmental variable contribution rates and the jackknife test. 【Results】 The potential suitable habitats for N. leucoloma worldwide are mainly in the southeastern United States, southwestern France, northern Spain, and northwestern Turkey in Europe. It can be also mainly distributed in the central and eastern coastal areas of China, while there was no highly suitable habitat for N. leucoloma in China yet. Analysis of environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of N. leucoloma showed that the important environmental variables include the precipitation of the driest month, annual mean air temperature, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month, with the air temperature playing a key role. 【Conclusion】 N. leucoloma has certain invasion, colonization and dispersal risk. It is recommended that customs strengthen quarantine and monitoring work to prevent the introduction of N. leucoloma into China to cause damage to crops.

Key words: Naupactus leucoloma; biological invasion, potential geographical distribution, environmental variable, MaxEnt model, jackknife